The week ahead (7-11 August) : eyes will be on US inflation numbers

6 Aug 2017 05:28 PM

Looking ahead to a new trading week and following the release of very positive US labor market data this past weekend, this week market turns to inflation data, and whether the positive tone of data from the US economy will continue and supports the Fed's path to raise interest rates for the third time this year.
Below is a look at the most important economic data and indicators during this week:
Chinese trade data
On Tuesday, the trade balance data for July will be released. The trade surplus is expected to shrink to 292 billion yuan and the US dollar trade surplus will expand by about 46 billion dollars. Exports are also expected to increase by 10.9% in July on an annualized basis after rising by 11.3% last month, while imports are expected to increase by 16.6% after rising in June by 17.2%.
Also, China's inflation data will be released this week as the consumer price index is expected to rise by 1.5% in July, while the producer price index will rise by 5.5%.

New Zealand interest rate decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is due to meet on Wednesday to announce its interest rate decision, and it's expected to remain unchanged at 1.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting since it cut last November. Disappointing employment data will have the role of excluding any interest rate hikes Any time soon, markets will be waiting for RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler to discuss the central bank's direction in the coming period.

US inflation data
After the strong employment data, the markets are waiting for positive US data to continue. This time, attention will be given to inflation figures. The CPI is due to be released on Friday, the index is expected to rise by 0.2% in July and the core index is expected to rise by the same percentage. On a yearly basis, the Core CPI is expected to rise by 1.7%, and rising inflation is one of the factors supporting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the coming months.

Monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency
OPEC is due to publish the monthly oil market assessment on Thursday of this week, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will issue its monthly report on the global oil market. These reports will show traders whether or not the market rebalance is occurring.

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